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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still